If you knew that the fed was going to cut interest rates, you would obviously act on the stocks that had been beat up the most by the lack of affordable liquidity. So you would have bought calls on those companies, mortgage bond insurers, subprime lenders, home builders, companies that would see a rosier future as a result of the reverse of poor possibilities for their products to be bought and defaulted on in the near future.
How far in advance of these trading moments would you have prepared that strategy? How are you preparing your next strategy to deal with the next upside or downside possible overall market or industry surprise?
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The problem with your theory is that, in the real world, by the time you get around to figuring out what the Fed is likely to do, the market will already have incorporated the information into the price of the stock.
Market analysts have powerful computers and sophisticated algorithms at their disposal that are able to — and actually do — react to news and the expectation of news in a fraction of a second. My guess is that you don’t.